Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-08

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-03-29) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 100 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-03-29 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-29. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-29. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-29. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-29. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-03-29)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-03-29) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country/Region	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling time (days)
Algeria	136 (91 – 183)	Likely increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.5)	16 (6.9 – Inf)
Argentina	123 (72 – 169)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	19 (6.9 – Inf)
Australia	154 (98 – 205)	Decreasing	0.7 (0.6 – 0.8)	-8.5 (Inf – Inf)
Austria	294 (233 – 349)	Decreasing	0.7 (0.6 – 0.8)	-8.1 (Inf – Inf)
Belarus	118 (76 – 159)	Increasing	1.9 (1.3 – 2.3)	5.1 (3.3 – 11)
Belgium	1350 (1215 – 1468)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	180 (33 – Inf)
Brazil	1026 (917 – 1136)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	18 (11 – 45)
Cameroon	113 (59 – 164)	Increasing	1.6 (1.1 – 2.1)	6.3 (3.7 – 23)
Canada	1373 (1241 – 1496)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	23 (15 – 56)
Chile	357 (287 – 420)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	34 (13 – Inf)
China	69 (33 – 105)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.6 – 1.1)	-21 (14 – Inf)
Colombia	109 (61 – 145)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	72 (9.8 – Inf)
Czech Republic	308 (156 – 456)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.5)	27 (7.1 – Inf)
Czechia	236 (181 – 290)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-68 (25 – Inf)
Denmark	317 (253 – 379)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	19 (9.7 – 450)
Dominican Republic	121 (72 – 164)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-79 (13 – Inf)
Ecuador	166 (115 – 220)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.6 – 1.1)	-21 (28 – Inf)
Egypt	116 (58 – 175)	Increasing	1.5 (1 – 2)	7.3 (3.9 – 57)
Estonia	84 (34 – 124)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.9 – 1.8)	12 (4.7 – Inf)
Finland	164 (120 – 210)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	9.9 (5.7 – 41)
France	3568 (3361 – 3786)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-25 (Inf – Inf)
Germany	4806 (4587 – 5075)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	-82 (260 – Inf)
Greece	82 (36 – 120)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-72 (9.9 – Inf)
India	512 (422 – 585)	Increasing	1.5 (1.3 – 1.7)	9.1 (6.5 – 15)
Indonesia	174 (127 – 221)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	22 (8.8 – Inf)
Iran	2686 (2503 – 2854)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-64 (1500 – Inf)
Iraq	79 (42 – 114)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.6)	19 (5.8 – Inf)
Ireland	380 (312 – 454)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	24 (11 – Inf)
Israel	614 (526 – 699)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	38 (16 – Inf)
Italy	4304 (4062 – 4521)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 0.9)	-54 (Inf – Inf)
Japan	311 (240 – 370)	Increasing	1.4 (1.2 – 1.6)	11 (6.8 – 26)
Kazakhstan	75 (41 – 105)	Increasing	1.5 (1 – 1.9)	9.6 (4.5 – Inf)
Kuwait	90 (47 – 122)	Increasing	1.8 (1.3 – 2.4)	5.2 (3.2 – 13)
Lithuania	56 (24 – 87)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	56 (6.7 – Inf)
Luxembourg	107 (55 – 153)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.6 – 1.1)	-22 (20 – Inf)
Malaysia	174 (111 – 222)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	44 (11 – Inf)
Mexico	250 (192 – 302)	Increasing	1.4 (1.2 – 1.6)	10 (6.4 – 29)
Moldova	119 (72 – 156)	Increasing	1.5 (1.2 – 1.9)	8 (4.6 – 30)
Morocco	114 (67 – 156)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.7)	12 (5.7 – Inf)
Netherlands	1031 (908 – 1135)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	300 (33 – Inf)
Norway	207 (142 – 260)	Unsure	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-47 (24 – Inf)
Pakistan	419 (346 – 491)	Increasing	1.5 (1.3 – 1.7)	8 (5.7 – 13)
Panama	162 (105 – 205)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.4)	19 (7.8 – Inf)
Peru	290 (232 – 350)	Increasing	1.5 (1.2 – 1.7)	8.6 (5.9 – 17)
Philippines	258 (205 – 309)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	-46 (31 – Inf)
Poland	367 (293 – 424)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	17 (9.4 – 74)
Portugal	665 (580 – 763)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-40 (120 – Inf)
Qatar	232 (174 – 277)	Increasing	1.7 (1.3 – 2.1)	5.8 (4.2 – 9.3)
Romania	316 (247 – 371)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	30 (12 – Inf)
Russia	721 (638 – 815)	Increasing	1.4 (1.2 – 1.6)	11 (7.8 – 17)
Saudi Arabia	175 (125 – 224)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	19 (8.3 – Inf)
Serbia	249 (192 – 302)	Increasing	1.4 (1.2 – 1.7)	9.2 (5.9 – 21)
Singapore	90 (51 – 131)	Likely increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.6)	14 (5.6 – Inf)
South Africa	73 (33 – 110)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.4)	85 (7.2 – Inf)
South Korea	78 (36 – 114)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-26 (14 – Inf)
Spain	6158 (5869 – 6441)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-29 (Inf – Inf)
Sweden	425 (349 – 497)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	56 (16 – Inf)
Switzerland	838 (735 – 937)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-30 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand	112 (59 – 165)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	-53 (12 – Inf)
Turkey	3005 (2810 – 3206)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	18 (14 – 25)
Ukraine	128 (75 – 174)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	29 (8.2 – Inf)
United Arab Emirates	291 (230 – 350)	Increasing	1.7 (1.4 – 1.9)	6.2 (4.5 – 9.8)
United Kingdom	4487 (4224 – 4718)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	18 (14 – 24)
United States of America	30285 (29683 – 30906)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	24 (20 – 30)