Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-08

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-03-29) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 100 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-03-29 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-29. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-29. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-29. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-29. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-03-29)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-03-29) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Algeria 136 (91 – 183) Likely increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 16 (6.9 – Inf)
Argentina 123 (72 – 169) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 19 (6.9 – Inf)
Australia 154 (98 – 205) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.8) -8.5 (Inf – Inf)
Austria 294 (233 – 349) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.8) -8.1 (Inf – Inf)
Belarus 118 (76 – 159) Increasing 1.9 (1.3 – 2.3) 5.1 (3.3 – 11)
Belgium 1350 (1215 – 1468) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 180 (33 – Inf)
Brazil 1026 (917 – 1136) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 18 (11 – 45)
Cameroon 113 (59 – 164) Increasing 1.6 (1.1 – 2.1) 6.3 (3.7 – 23)
Canada 1373 (1241 – 1496) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 23 (15 – 56)
Chile 357 (287 – 420) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 34 (13 – Inf)
China 69 (33 – 105) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -21 (14 – Inf)
Colombia 109 (61 – 145) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 72 (9.8 – Inf)
Czech Republic 308 (156 – 456) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 27 (7.1 – Inf)
Czechia 236 (181 – 290) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -68 (25 – Inf)
Denmark 317 (253 – 379) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 19 (9.7 – 450)
Dominican Republic 121 (72 – 164) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -79 (13 – Inf)
Ecuador 166 (115 – 220) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -21 (28 – Inf)
Egypt 116 (58 – 175) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 2) 7.3 (3.9 – 57)
Estonia 84 (34 – 124) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.8) 12 (4.7 – Inf)
Finland 164 (120 – 210) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 9.9 (5.7 – 41)
France 3568 (3361 – 3786) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -25 (Inf – Inf)
Germany 4806 (4587 – 5075) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) -82 (260 – Inf)
Greece 82 (36 – 120) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -72 (9.9 – Inf)
India 512 (422 – 585) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 9.1 (6.5 – 15)
Indonesia 174 (127 – 221) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 22 (8.8 – Inf)
Iran 2686 (2503 – 2854) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -64 (1500 – Inf)
Iraq 79 (42 – 114) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 19 (5.8 – Inf)
Ireland 380 (312 – 454) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 24 (11 – Inf)
Israel 614 (526 – 699) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 38 (16 – Inf)
Italy 4304 (4062 – 4521) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 0.9) -54 (Inf – Inf)
Japan 311 (240 – 370) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 11 (6.8 – 26)
Kazakhstan 75 (41 – 105) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 1.9) 9.6 (4.5 – Inf)
Kuwait 90 (47 – 122) Increasing 1.8 (1.3 – 2.4) 5.2 (3.2 – 13)
Lithuania 56 (24 – 87) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 56 (6.7 – Inf)
Luxembourg 107 (55 – 153) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -22 (20 – Inf)
Malaysia 174 (111 – 222) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 44 (11 – Inf)
Mexico 250 (192 – 302) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 10 (6.4 – 29)
Moldova 119 (72 – 156) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.9) 8 (4.6 – 30)
Morocco 114 (67 – 156) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.7) 12 (5.7 – Inf)
Netherlands 1031 (908 – 1135) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 300 (33 – Inf)
Norway 207 (142 – 260) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -47 (24 – Inf)
Pakistan 419 (346 – 491) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 8 (5.7 – 13)
Panama 162 (105 – 205) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 19 (7.8 – Inf)
Peru 290 (232 – 350) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.7) 8.6 (5.9 – 17)
Philippines 258 (205 – 309) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) -46 (31 – Inf)
Poland 367 (293 – 424) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 17 (9.4 – 74)
Portugal 665 (580 – 763) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -40 (120 – Inf)
Qatar 232 (174 – 277) Increasing 1.7 (1.3 – 2.1) 5.8 (4.2 – 9.3)
Romania 316 (247 – 371) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 30 (12 – Inf)
Russia 721 (638 – 815) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 11 (7.8 – 17)
Saudi Arabia 175 (125 – 224) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 19 (8.3 – Inf)
Serbia 249 (192 – 302) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.7) 9.2 (5.9 – 21)
Singapore 90 (51 – 131) Likely increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 14 (5.6 – Inf)
South Africa 73 (33 – 110) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) 85 (7.2 – Inf)
South Korea 78 (36 – 114) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -26 (14 – Inf)
Spain 6158 (5869 – 6441) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -29 (Inf – Inf)
Sweden 425 (349 – 497) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 56 (16 – Inf)
Switzerland 838 (735 – 937) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -30 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 112 (59 – 165) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -53 (12 – Inf)
Turkey 3005 (2810 – 3206) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 18 (14 – 25)
Ukraine 128 (75 – 174) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 29 (8.2 – Inf)
United Arab Emirates 291 (230 – 350) Increasing 1.7 (1.4 – 1.9) 6.2 (4.5 – 9.8)
United Kingdom 4487 (4224 – 4718) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 18 (14 – 24)
United States of America 30285 (29683 – 30906) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 24 (20 – 30)